US Europe Routes Dominate International Traffic With Seventy-Seven Million Travelers

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Nearly 77M passengers flew between the US and Europe in the year to Oct 2024, accounting for 31% of international traffic, with an average 83% seat load factor.

In the 12 months leading up to October 2024, nearly 77 million roundtrip passengers flew between the United States and Europe, according to the US Department of Transportation. This impressive figure accounted for approximately 31% of the country’s total international air traffic. On average, 83% of seats on transatlantic flights were filled during this period, reflecting the overall demand and capacity dynamics of the route.

Understanding Seat Load Factors

Seat load factor, a critical metric for airlines, represents the percentage of available seats or seat miles filled by paying passengers. This measurement provides valuable insights into an airline’s operational efficiency and financial performance.

Too much capacity can lead to lower fares, reduced yields, and lower load factors. Conversely, inadequate capacity may drive up fares and yields but risk leaving market opportunities unfulfilled. Striking the right balance is key for airlines to maximize profitability and market share.

Seasonality plays a significant role in load factor management. In winter, airlines often reduce capacity by cutting frequencies, changing aircraft types, or shortening operating periods. These adjustments can boost yields and improve load factors. During summer, when demand typically surges, airlines capitalize on increased capacity, provided traffic growth matches fare expectations. For example, Lufthansa is set to increase seating capacity on its Munich-Denver route by 74% this summer, replacing the Airbus A350 with the larger Airbus A380.

The Dual Nature of High Load Factors

While high load factors can indicate success, they don’t always equate to profitability. Flights full of lower-yield passengers, such as leisure travelers or those visiting friends and relatives, may not generate the revenue needed to offset costs unless operating expenses are exceptionally low. Thus, maintaining a balance between passenger volume and fare levels is essential.

Low Load Factor Routes: Challenges and Opportunities

Analyzing over 340 US-European airport pairs for the same period reveals significant variability in load factors. The lowest recorded was 47% on the Terceira (Azores, Portugal) to New York JFK route. Operated by Azores Airlines since 2022, this relatively short transatlantic route (2,139 nautical miles or 3,961 km) maintains weekly year-round service but has struggled to achieve higher load factors.

Several routes with low performance have already been discontinued or are slated for termination. However, such scenarios often create opportunities for other airlines to step in and capitalize on the established market. Airlines must remain vigilant about competitors’ actions, as these can signal potential openings.

Developing New Routes: A High-Stakes Game

Launching new routes, especially long-haul ones, requires significant investment and patience. While financial subsidies and revenue guarantees can provide initial support, airlines now face increasing pressure to deliver results quickly. With large sums of money at stake, route performance is often assessed within days of tickets going on sale.

As the transatlantic market evolves, airlines must strategically manage capacity, pricing, and route development to navigate the complex interplay of demand, competition, and profitability. The coming years will likely see further innovations and adjustments in this critical air travel corridor.

Share On:

Tags: Airline Industry Trends, Aviation Insights, international traffic growth, passenger demand 2024, Record passenger numbers, seat load factor, seventy-seven million travelers, transatlantic routes, US Europe air travel, US Europe flights